Hernalytics · Wave 1 of 4To Vote or
Not to Vote.
Tracking Nigerian women's electoral perspectives ahead of the 2027 general elections. An interactive read of the inaugural ElectHER wave — 805 women, all six geopolitical zones, one conditional electorate.
What 805 women told us
Six numbers that frame the inaugural wave: a measured, conditional electorate — not an apathetic one.
Sample composition & trust gradient
A stratified multi-stage sample across all six zones. Southwest and Northwest are overrepresented; insecurity-affected zones are likely understated.
The issues that decide her vote
Security and cost of living dominate. 81.4% feel candidates aren’t speaking to their concerns — the highest-magnitude finding in the dataset.
Four segments. One conditional electorate.
Tap a segment to read its profile. Sizes reflect each segment's share of the surveyed sample.
Largest and most stable segment. Even among low-trust women, 62% still intend to vote — driven by civic duty and issue salience.
Three scenarios for women's turnout
The female vote is highly responsive to trust, safety, and candidate messaging quality. These pathways frame how Wave 1 evolves into election day.
Distrust, insecurity and economic pressure reinforce each other. 72% report low trust; 96% security concern; 24% undecided drift to abstention. Outcome: lower female turnout, especially in low-access groups.
Women participate selectively based on issue urgency — security (75%) and cost of living (67%). Turnout is volatile, shaped by short-term signals. With 70% having no preferred candidate, the female vote remains highly responsive to campaign-messaging quality.
Trust, safety and reliable information improve. 93% of high-trust women intend to vote. Expanding voter education and election-day safety converts uncertainty into participation. 94% are willing to vote for female candidates once visible.
Where her trust lives
Traditional media still leads — particularly radio in rural and conflict-affected areas. Misinformation is a structural participation risk: 60% of women have encountered false political information.
Strong demand, inadequate supply. The disconnect is structural — formal political rules and informal gatekeeping limit women's access to the highest levels of leadership.